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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd