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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.